Rates This Week
| Benchmark | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury | 4.50% | ↓ 5bps |
| 5Y Treasury | 4.27% | ↓ 5bps |
| SOFR (overnight) | 4.31% | flat |
| 30-day SOFR avg | 4.31% | flat |
| 5Y Swap Rate | 4.19% | ↓ 3bps |
| 10Y Swap Rate | 4.34% | ↓ 5bps |
Fed Watch
Rate cuts priced through 2026: Zero — but the chair is new.
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate last week on a 53-47 vote. His first FOMC meeting as chair is June 17-18, just two weeks away. Markets reacted with a modest bid in Treasuries, interpreting Warsh’s confirmation testimony — which emphasized “price stability as the singular mandate in practice” — as hawkish but predictable.
CME FedWatch shows zero probability of a June cut. The September meeting is the first where any cut probability registers, at roughly 12%. Hike odds have pulled back slightly to ~48% through early 2027.
For the full background on Warsh: What a new Fed chair means for CRE rates (LoanBoss)
What Moved This Week
Warsh confirmation dominated the macro narrative. The vote was largely priced in, but traders noted a brief rally in 2Y Treasuries as the “uncertainty discount” around the transition cleared (Bloomberg).
ISM Manufacturing came in at 49.8 — still in contraction territory but the highest reading since November. New orders ticked above 50 for the first time in four months, suggesting a possible inflection (ISM).
Payrolls added 175K in May, slightly below consensus. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Wage growth moderated to 3.8% year-over-year — a data point the new Fed chair will be watching closely (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
CRE Debt Signal
- $280 billion in CRE loans mature in 2026, according to MBA’s Q1 maturity tracker. Roughly 40% of that volume is office and retail — the sectors with the widest gap between origination assumptions and current fundamentals.
- Bridge loan extensions are rising sharply. Trepp reports that 62% of bridge loans originated in 2021-2022 have exercised at least one extension option. Borrowers are buying time, betting that rate relief or property stabilization will improve takeout options.
- Agency lending volume is up 15% year-over-year through April, per Freddie Mac data. Fannie and Freddie remain the most consistent capital sources for multifamily, with execution spreads tightening as GSE portfolio limits reset for 2026.
- Debt fund fundraising slowed in Q1. Several major debt fund managers reported lower-than-target capital raises, reflecting LP caution around CRE credit in a “higher for longer” environment (Bloomberg).
Action Items
-
Map your 2026 maturities against current market execution. If you have loans maturing this year, get live quotes now. Refinancing timelines are stretching as lenders increase diligence in this rate environment.
-
Evaluate extension options before they expire. If you are sitting on a bridge loan with extension options, run the math on exercising versus refinancing today. LoanBoss can model both scenarios side-by-side — log in here.
-
Watch the June 17-18 FOMC closely. Warsh’s first statement and press conference will set the tone for the second half of 2026. Do not make hedging decisions based on speculation — but be ready to act on clarity.
-
Revisit agency execution for multifamily. With agency volume up and spreads tightening, Fannie and Freddie are pricing competitively. If you have been waiting for better execution, this may be as good as it gets in 2026.
Deeper Reading
- What is yield maintenance? A borrower’s guide (LoanBoss)
- Why zero rate cuts changes everything for CRE debt (LoanBoss)
- SOFR in Arrears — what it means for your floating-rate loan (Pensford)
The Debt Stack is published every Monday by the LoanBoss team. It is not financial advice. For hedging strategy, talk to Pensford.