Rates This Week
| Benchmark | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury | 4.48% | ↓ 4bps |
| 5Y Treasury | 4.24% | ↓ 4bps |
| SOFR (overnight) | 4.31% | flat |
| 30-day SOFR avg | 4.31% | flat |
| 5Y Swap Rate | 4.14% | ↓ 4bps |
| 10Y Swap Rate | 4.31% | ↓ 4bps |
Fed Watch
Rate cuts priced through 2026: Still zero.
The modest rally in Treasuries this week did not change the rate-cut calculus. CME FedWatch continues to show zero probability of a cut before December, and swaps pricing still implies a slightly higher chance of a hike than a cut through early 2027.
The next FOMC meeting remains June 17-18 — widely expected to be a hold. Attention is turning to whether Warsh’s confirmation vote, expected in the coming weeks, shifts forward guidance dynamics.
For deeper analysis on Warsh and the Fed: Read the full breakdown (LoanBoss)
What Moved This Week
CPI came in below expectations at 0.2% month-over-month — the first downside surprise since January. The 10Y Treasury rallied modestly on the print, but traders noted the move lacked conviction (Bloomberg).
Retail sales disappointed, posting a 0.1% decline for April. Consumer spending momentum appears to be slowing, though services spending held steady (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
The dollar weakened against major currencies as softer data renewed (tentative) speculation about the Fed’s rate path. The DXY index dropped 0.4% on the week (Bloomberg).
CRE Debt Signal
- Blackstone filed for a data center REIT IPO — the first major CRE public offering of 2026. The portfolio includes 12 hyperscale facilities across five states. Pricing expected in June (SEC filing).
- Multifamily rent growth remains essentially flat per Jay Parsons’ spring update. National effective rents rose just 0.3% year-over-year, with Sun Belt markets still absorbing new supply.
- Goldman Sachs sees office opportunity outside NYC — their latest research note identifies secondary markets where office cap rates exceed 8%, offering spread over replacement cost for well-capitalized buyers.
- Agency CMBS issuance ticked up in the second week of May, with Freddie Mac pricing $1.2B in K-deals at tighter spreads than Q1 averages (Bloomberg).
Action Items
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Revisit fixed-rate lock timing. The 4bps drop is modest, but if you have loans in underwriting, check whether your rate lock window aligns with this move. Small basis points compound across large balances.
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Benchmark your multifamily rent assumptions. If your underwriting assumes 2-3% rent growth, the Parsons data suggests you should stress-test at 0-1%. Update your models accordingly.
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Evaluate data center exposure and lending appetite. Blackstone’s IPO signals institutional conviction in the sector. If you are a borrower in this space, lender appetite may be widening — shop your deal.
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Run a portfolio rate snapshot in LoanBoss. With rates ticking down, check where your weighted-average cost of debt sits today versus your last review — see your dashboard.
Deeper Reading
- What is yield maintenance? A borrower’s guide (LoanBoss)
- Why zero rate cuts changes everything for CRE (LoanBoss)
- SOFR in Arrears — what it means for your loan (Pensford)
The Debt Stack is published every Monday by the LoanBoss team. It is not financial advice. For hedging strategy, talk to Pensford.