The CRE maturity wall is a concentration of commercial real estate loan expirations that forces borrowers to refinance, extend, or sell assets within a compressed timeline. Goldman Sachs estimates $1.1 trillion in CRE debt matures across 2026 and 2027 — the largest two-year concentration in history. Using proprietary data from LoanBoss’s $250B+ managed portfolio, this report breaks down where the exposure sits, which loans face the steepest refi gaps, and what borrowers are actually doing about it.
How Large Is the 2026-2027 Maturity Wall?
The combined CRE maturity volume for 2026-2027 exceeds $1.1 trillion according to Goldman Sachs, representing the single largest refinancing challenge the commercial real estate industry has faced. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates approximately $875 billion in CRE loans mature in 2026, with additional maturities pushed into 2027 from prior extensions.
These figures have grown, not shrunk, over the past 18 months. That’s because extensions granted in 2023 and 2024 pushed maturities forward rather than resolving them. GlobeSt reported in April 2026 that roughly $180 billion in loans originally due in 2024 were extended into the current window. The wall didn’t get managed — it got deferred.
LoanBoss Portfolio Data: Maturity Breakdown by Year
From our managed portfolio of $250B+ in CRE debt, here is the maturity concentration:
| Maturity Year | Outstanding Balance | % of Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 H2 | $48.2B | 19.1% |
| 2027 H1 | $39.7B | 15.7% |
| 2027 H2 | $31.4B | 12.4% |
| 2028+ | $133.2B | 52.8% |
A significant share of CRE debt matures within the next 18 months. This concentration is consistent with MBA industry-wide estimates showing roughly one-third of all outstanding CRE debt maturing before the end of 2027.
Which Property Types Face the Most Pressure?
Office carries the heaviest maturity load relative to its ability to absorb refinancing costs, with approximately 28% of all maturing CRE debt tied to office properties where vacancy rates nationally average 19.6% according to The Real Deal. Multifamily and industrial face large absolute volumes but fundamentally healthier cash flow dynamics.
LoanBoss Portfolio: Maturities by Property Type (2026-2027)
| Property Type | Maturing Balance | Avg. Current DSCR | Avg. DSCR at Refi Rate | % Underwater at Refi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | $22.8B | 1.18x | 0.89x | 62% |
| Multifamily | $31.4B | 1.31x | 1.08x | 24% |
| Industrial | $14.9B | 1.52x | 1.27x | 9% |
| Retail | $11.6B | 1.24x | 0.97x | 41% |
| Hospitality | $7.2B | 1.35x | 1.04x | 19% |
The data tells a clear story: office is the epicenter. At a 6.75% refi rate (the current market clearing rate for conventional CRE permanent debt), a majority of maturing office loans would fail a 1.0x DSCR test. The Real Deal reported that office loan defaults have already hit their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis.
Retail is the second most stressed category at 41% underwater, driven by a bifurcation between essential-use retail (grocery-anchored, which performs well) and discretionary retail (which does not). Multifamily is manageable but not immune — 24% of maturing multifamily loans face a DSCR shortfall, concentrated heavily in Class B and C properties in secondary markets.
How Does the Lender Mix Affect Outcomes?
The maturity wall’s severity depends not just on how much debt is coming due but on who holds it, because different lender types have dramatically different appetites for extensions, modifications, and workouts. CMBS loans face the most rigid resolution framework, while balance sheet bank lenders retain the most flexibility.
LoanBoss Portfolio: Maturities by Lender Type (2026-2027)
| Lender Type | Maturing Balance | Avg. Extension Rate | Avg. Refi Gap (bps) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMBS / Conduit | $24.1B | 18% | 285 bps |
| Regional/Community Banks | $21.3B | 54% | 210 bps |
| National Banks | $16.8B | 41% | 195 bps |
| Life Companies | $12.9B | 12% | 145 bps |
| Agency (Fannie/Freddie) | $9.8B | N/A | 120 bps |
| Debt Funds / Bridge | $3.0B | 67% | 340 bps |
Several patterns stand out in this data:
CMBS loans have the lowest extension rate (18%) because special servicers face structural constraints. Pooling and servicing agreements limit the duration and terms of modifications. CRED iQ reports that the CMBS distress rate climbed to 11.70% in December 2025, with office delinquencies the highest among major property types.
Regional banks are extending aggressively (54%) — often because they can’t afford to recognize the loss. The MBA’s annual report flagged that smaller bank CRE concentrations remain a regulatory concern, with many institutions holding CRE exposure exceeding 300% of risk-based capital.
Life companies have the smallest refi gap (145 bps) because they underwrote conservatively at origination. Their low extension rate (12%) reflects that most of their loans can actually refinance — they don’t need extensions.
Debt fund / bridge loans show the highest extension rate (67%) and the widest refi gap (340 bps). These are the loans that were originated at low rates with short terms and value-add business plans. Many of those business plans have stalled.
What Does the Refi Math Look Like at Today’s Rates?
A loan originated in 2021 at a 3.5% fixed rate refinancing today faces a rate increase of 300+ basis points, which translates to a 25-35% increase in debt service on the same principal balance. For most properties, this gap cannot be closed by NOI growth alone.
Refi Scenario Analysis: $10M Loan Example
| Metric | At Origination (2021) | At Refi (2026) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate | 3.50% | 6.75% | +325 bps |
| Annual Debt Service | $538,000 | $778,000 | +$240,000 |
| Required NOI (1.25x DSCR) | $672,500 | $972,500 | +$300,000 |
| NOI Growth Needed | — | +44.6% | — |
A 44.6% NOI increase over five years is not realistic for the vast majority of properties. The MBA reported average NOI growth of 2.8% annually for stabilized CRE assets over the same period, meaning the typical property generated roughly 14% cumulative NOI growth — less than one-third of what’s needed to cover the refi gap.
This is why so many maturities are resulting in one of three outcomes:
- Cash-in refinancing — borrowers contributing fresh equity to reduce the loan balance and make the DSCR work.
- Extend and pretend — lenders granting 12-24 month extensions to avoid recognizing losses.
- Distressed sales — assets trading at 20-40% discounts to 2021 valuations, particularly in office.
LoanBoss Portfolio: Refi Outcome Distribution (2025-2026 Maturities Resolved)
| Outcome | % of Resolved Maturities | Avg. Equity Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Refinanced at full balance | 22% | N/A |
| Refinanced with paydown | 34% | 12-18% of original balance |
| Extended by lender | 31% | Varies |
| Sold / foreclosed | 8% | N/A |
| Paid off (no refi needed) | 5% | N/A |
Only 22% of the maturities resolved in our portfolio over the past year refinanced at the full original balance. More than a third required fresh equity. This is the new normal.
What Is Happening with Bridge Loan Extensions?
Bridge loan extensions have become the most closely watched indicator of maturity wall stress, because bridge loans were designed as short-term capital with a clear exit to permanent financing — and that exit has been blocked by today’s rate environment. In our data, 73% of bridge loans that matured in the past 12 months exercised at least one extension option.
GlobeSt reported that nearly $900 billion in maturing and extended CRE loans are now testing lenders and borrowers as refinancing pressures build. Most of these extensions come with conditions:
- Rate increases: Average extension spreads have widened by 50-75 bps over the original coupon
- Additional reserves: Lenders are requiring 6-12 months of interest reserves as a condition of extension
- Partial paydowns: 30% of extensions in our portfolio required a 5-10% principal paydown
- Cap replacements: Virtually all floating-rate extensions require a new or extended interest rate cap
LoanBoss Portfolio: Bridge Loan Extension Trends
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q1 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extension exercise rate | 58% | 65% | 73% | Rising |
| Avg. extension term | 12 months | 12 months | 9 months | Shortening |
| Avg. spread increase at extension | +35 bps | +50 bps | +65 bps | Widening |
| Extensions requiring paydown | 18% | 24% | 30% | Increasing |
| Extensions requiring new cap | 82% | 89% | 96% | Near universal |
The trend is unmistakable: extensions are getting more expensive, shorter, and harder to obtain. Borrowers who assumed they could extend their way to a better rate environment are finding that each extension extracts more cash and provides less time.
How Should Borrowers Prepare?
Preparation for the maturity wall requires a property-by-property analysis of refi feasibility, not a portfolio-level assumption that rates will come down or values will recover. The borrowers navigating this successfully are the ones who started early and made decisions based on actual market data rather than hope.
Five-Step Maturity Wall Action Plan
1. Run refi scenarios at today’s rates — not projected rates. Use 6.50-7.25% depending on property type and leverage. If the DSCR doesn’t work, it doesn’t work. Knowing now is better than knowing at maturity.
2. Quantify your equity gap. For every loan that can’t refinance at full balance, calculate the equity contribution required to achieve a 1.25x DSCR. Budget for it now. The MBA data shows average paydowns running 12-18% of original balance.
3. Engage lenders 12-18 months before maturity. The data from our portfolio shows that outcomes are meaningfully better when the borrower initiates the refinancing conversation early. Last-minute maturities result in worse terms or forced sales.
4. Price cap replacements immediately. If your rate cap expires within the next 18 months, get indicative replacement pricing today. Cap costs have increased 40-60% over the past year for at-the-money protection. Waiting makes this worse.
5. Consider partial asset sales to de-lever. If the equity contribution required to refi exceeds your appetite, selling one asset in a portfolio to generate cash for refinancing the others may be the most efficient capital allocation decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much CRE debt matures in 2026? Goldman Sachs and the MBA estimate approximately $875 billion to $1 trillion in CRE debt matures in 2026, with an additional wave in 2027. The combined volume represents the largest two-year maturity concentration in CRE history. Industry data confirms similar concentration ratios across CRE portfolios.
Which property type is most at risk? Office is by far the most stressed property type. In the LoanBoss portfolio, a majority of maturing office loans would struggle to pass a 1.0x DSCR test at current refinancing rates. National office vacancy rates average 19.6%, and The Real Deal reports office loan defaults have reached post-GFC highs. Retail ranks second at 41% underwater.
Can borrowers just extend their loans? Extensions are increasingly available but increasingly expensive. Industry data shows the majority of bridge loans are exercising extension options, but extension terms are shortening, spreads are widening, and a growing share now require a principal paydown. CMBS loans have the lowest extension rate at 18% due to servicer constraints.
How much equity do borrowers need to contribute to refinance? Based on LoanBoss portfolio data, 34% of recently resolved maturities required a cash-in refinance with an average equity contribution of 12-18% of the original loan balance. At a 6.75% refi rate, the typical 2021-vintage loan needs 44.6% NOI growth to cover the debt service increase — far exceeding the 14% average cumulative NOI growth actually achieved.
What should borrowers do right now? Start the refinancing conversation with lenders 12-18 months before maturity, run DSCR scenarios at 6.50-7.25% all-in rates, price cap replacements immediately for any expiring within 18 months, and quantify the equity gap for every maturing loan. The borrowers navigating this successfully are the ones making decisions early based on real data rather than waiting for rate relief.
This research was produced by the LoanBoss Team using proprietary portfolio data from $250B+ in managed CRE debt. LoanBoss is a portfolio management and analytics platform for commercial real estate borrowers and lenders. For access to LoanBoss portfolio analytics, visit loanboss.com.